HISTORICAL LAND-USE DYNAMICS AND THE GEOGRAPHICAL DRIVERS OF BUILT-UP EXPANSION IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC, 1842–2019: A SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS
Abstract
Built-up expansion is a major indicator of long-term landscape transformation, yet its historical trajectories and socio-environmental drivers remain insufficiently integrated over extended time periods. This study examined built-up-area dynamics in the Czech Republic from 1842 to 1950 to 2019 using a GIS-derived retrospective spatiotemporal design. The analysis included 43,386 spatial units across 67 geographical locations, representing 655.48 ha. Built-up presence, dynamic categories, settlement context, protection status, population, elevation, slope, temperature, precipitation, wind, and landscape type were evaluated using descriptive statistics, area-weighted comparisons, chi-square tests, Cramér’s V, weighted logistic regression, and five-fold cross-validation. Built-up area increased from 93.63 ha in 1842 to 406.02 ha in 1950 and 609.60 ha in 2019, representing a 551.07% increase. Recent development accounted for 84.71% of the mapped area and was highest in urban settings. Urban locations had higher odds of recent development than peri-urban areas, whereas rural settings had lower odds. Protection status was not independently significant after adjustment. Population, elevation, temperature, wind, slope, and landscape type remained associated with recent development. Predictive performance was limited, indicating that additional spatial, policy, accessibility, and economic variables are required for stronger classification. The findings demonstrate spatially uneven expansion shaped by interacting social and environmental factors and support more context-sensitive land-use planning across Czech urban, peri-urban, rural, and protected landscapes.
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